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Full pieces with the working shown: what the price implies, which regime the position needs, how it is sized, and what would prove it wrong. Free to read with an email address.
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The Currency Leg of Your Portfolio
The exposure most European investors never chose
A European investor holding a global equity index has made a large, unhedged dollar bet. This piece quantifies that exposure, shows when hedging has paid, and gives a decision rule based on rate differentials and portfolio duration.
Quality at a Reasonable Multiple
Where the compounder trade still works, and where it is just duration
Quality has become a crowded factor with an embedded rate bet. We separate genuine reinvestment-driven compounding from multiple-driven returns and screen for businesses where the former dominates.
A Regime Map for Real Rates
Positioning across the four growth/inflation quadrants
Most allocation debates are really disagreements about which quadrant we are in. This piece builds an explicit map of growth and inflation surprises, shows historical asset behaviour in each, and derives a portfolio that does not require you to be right about the regime.